Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or activists are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they support unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent official who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster must join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
